Statistics Lie

After more than a year of having cancer, I just did the unthinkable.  I googled multiple myeloma statistics.  I have been telling people to NOT bother with statistics posted on the web.  The good doctor in Anchorage who was optimistic about my odds warned against reading those websites.  He said they’re outdated and primarily for patients in their 70’s and 80’s.  He also explained that there isn’t a statistic for me, a 56 year old, otherwise relatively healthy male.  

After finally breaking my own rule and reading the statistics, I can see the wisdom in the doctor’s warning.  They show a very depressing outlook on the effects of the disease.  First, it’s very rare.  1.6% of all cancers are multiple myeloma.  The most frightening statistic is that only 46.6% of patients survive five years after a diagnosis.  If you were to stop there, it’s time to be nervous.  The odds are, I won’t survive the next three years and about 7 months.

Reading more statistics however, shows that the median age of a diagnosis is 69.  The average death from the disease is 75.  The study ended in 2012.  These numbers would be relevant if I were 69 at the time of my diagnosis (I was 55) and if I contacted the disease at least five years before 2012.  Everything the doctor said was accurate.  This study is already outdated and does not apply to people who are younger than 69.  

At least now I understand why so many friends and family thought I was in serious trouble.  I certainly could have been but the odds for myeloma victims at my age in 2016 are simply not calculated.  I know my personal odds are 100% to live a very long life.